"I was honored when MIT Technology Review invited me to be the first guest judge of the top ten breakthrough technologies. It is difficult to narrow down the list. I want to choose technologies that not only make headlines in 2019, but also have a moment in the history of technology, "he said.
The "Top Ten Breakthrough Technologies" selected by Bill Gates are: smart robots, the new wave of nuclear energy, premature birth prediction, intestinal detection pills, customized cancer vaccines, artificial meat burgers, carbon dioxide traps, wearable electrocardiographs, toilets without sewers, and fluent AI assistants.
Let’s take a look at this list in detail:
Smart robot
Great significance: if robots can learn to cope with this chaotic real world, then they can do more work.
Main characters: OpenAI, Carnegie Mellon University, University of Michigan, University of California at Berkeley.
Maturity: 3-5 years
We need further breakthroughs in robots to master the dexterity required by a real warehouse or factory. However, if researchers can make reliable use of this learning method, robots will eventually be expected to assemble our gadgets, put things in the dishwasher and even help grandma get up.
——Will Knight
New wave of nuclear energy
Significance: Advanced nuclear fusion and fission reactors are coming into reality. The role of nuclear energy seems to be becoming more and more indispensable in efforts to reduce carbon emissions and limit climate change.
Main characters: Terrestrial Energy, TerraPower, NuScale, General Fusion.
Maturity: the new nuclear fission reactor is expected to achieve large-scale application by the mid-2020s; Nuclear fusion reactors still need at least ten years.
Progress has also been made in nuclear fusion. Although no one expects to deliver before 2030, companies like General Fusion and Commonwealth Fusion Systems have made some progress. Although many people think that nuclear fusion is a daydream, because nuclear reactors will not melt down and will not produce long-lived waste, they should face less public resistance than traditional nuclear energy.
——Leigh Phillips
Premature delivery prediction
Great significance: 15 million babies are born prematurely every year; This is the main cause of death among children under five years old.
Main characters: Akna Dx
Maturity: testing can be provided in clinics within five years.
Stephen Quake said that this technology, which only needs blood test, is fast and simple, and the cost of each test is less than $10. He and his collaborators have set up a startup, Akna Dx, to commercialize it.
——Bonnie Rochman
Intestinal detection tablets
Significance: This equipment can more easily screen and study intestinal diseases, including intestinal environmental dysfunction (EED), which prevents millions of children in poor countries from growing normally.
Main characters: Massachusetts General Hospital
Maturity: now available for adults; Testing on babies began in 2019.
This small probe can help researchers answer questions about the progress of EED, such as which cells it affects and whether it involves cells, so as to evaluate intervention measures and treatment methods.
——Courtney Humphries
Customized cancer vaccine
Significance: Traditional chemotherapy has a serious impact on healthy cells, and it is not necessarily effective in fighting tumors.
Main characters: BioNTech, Genentech
Maturity: At present, it is in the stage of human experiment.
The two companies are designing new manufacturing technologies to produce thousands of customized vaccines quickly and cheaply. This will be a tough job, because vaccine production involves tumor biopsy, DNA sequencing and analysis, and transmitting this information to the production site. Once the vaccine is produced, it needs to be sent to the hospital immediately, and the delay may be fatal.
——Adam Piore
Artificial meat hamburger
Great significance: Animal husbandry has caused disastrous deforestation, water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
Main characters: Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods
Maturity: It is now based on plants and will be manufactured in the laboratory around 2020.
Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods (Bill Gates is an investor in these two companies) are producing plant-based meat, that is, using peas, soybeans, wheat, potatoes and vegetable oil to imitate the texture and taste of animal meat, which is more conducive to environmental protection. According to the analysis of the Center for Sustainable Systems of the University of Michigan, the greenhouse gas emissions of Beyond Meat pie are 90% less than those of traditional beef burgers.
——Markkus Rovito
Carbon dioxide trap
Significant: Removing carbon dioxide from the air may be the last feasible way to prevent catastrophic climate change.
Main characters: Carbon Engineering, Climeworks, Global Thermostat.
Maturity: 5-10 years
In fact, from the perspective of engineering design, removing carbon dioxide from the air is one of the most difficult and expensive ways to deal with climate change. However, considering how slow we are in reducing emissions, there is no better choice at present.
——James Temple
Wearable electrocardiograph
Great significance: With the approval of regulatory agencies and the progress of related technologies, people can easily monitor their heart health through wearable devices. Smart watches that can detect ECG can warn of potentially life-threatening heart diseases such as atrial fibrillation.
Main characters: Apple, AliveCor, Withings
Maturity: now
At present, wearable devices only use one sensor, but there are 12 real ECG. Moreover, no wearable device can detect a heart attack. However, this may change soon. Last fall, AliveCor submitted the preliminary results of a dual-sensor system to the American Heart Association, which can detect a certain type of heart attack.
——Karen Hao
Sewerless toilet
Significance: 2.3 billion people around the world lack safe toilets, and many people die as a result.
Main characters: Duke University, University of South Florida, Biomass Controls, California Institute of Technology.
Maturity: 1-2 years
The challenge now is to reduce the cost of these toilets and adapt to communities of different sizes. "It’s great to build one or two toilets," said Daniel Yeh, an associate professor at the University of South Florida. "But the only way to make this technology really affect the world is mass production."
——Erin Winick
AI assistant with fluent conversation
Significant: AI assistants can now perform session-based tasks, such as booking restaurants or coordinating package delivery, rather than just following simple orders.
Main characters: Google, Alibaba, Amazon
Maturity: 1-2 years
Consumers in China have become accustomed to Alibaba’s AliMe, which coordinates parcel delivery by phone or bargains with people. Although AI programs can better understand people’s needs, they still can’t understand sentences. Once we cross this obstacle, we will see another evolution, from logistics coordinator to nanny, teacher and even friends?
——Karen Hao