Game console, the crown jewel of the game industry: in developed countries, console is the most important game platform, and most of the first-line games we are familiar with are launched here. Host users have strong stickiness and consumption power. In the 21st century, only three global giants, Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft, have the ability to design and operate mainframes. Every time the host is updated, it will lead to the technical and creative reshuffle of the entire game industry. Due to historical reasons, China missed most of the host wars in the past generations.
Competition spanning 40 years and worth hundreds of billions of dollars: since 1972, the game console war has been going on for eight generations, and each generation is accompanied by cruel competition among giants. Atari, NEC and Sega, the former overlords, have withdrawn from the market or even disappeared. Nintendo and Sony have experienced ups and downs, and Microsoft is always one step away from the crown of victory. Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of bets, repeatedly swaying between giants, whether it is technology, cost, market or ecosystem advantages, are not enough to ensure victory.
The key to victory is content, content, content: in most generations, the host that won the war is the highest quality and richest content. Host manufacturers must first establish a strong first-party self-developed content barrier to attract core fans; Then attract enough third-party content with favorable conditions and the power of the ecosystem to cover as many players as possible. The rise and decline of Nintendo and the replacement of Sony all prove that it is content that controls channels, not channels that control content.
In the era of mobile internet, host manufacturers are struggling to change: the rise of smart phones has profoundly changed the game format — — Most of the market increment was taken away by mobile games. In North America and Europe, the mainframe still maintains its dominant position; In Asia, mobile games have already come from behind. The three major host manufacturers put forward different countermeasures: Sony and Microsoft hope to further strengthen the hardware performance of the host and win with technological advantages; Nintendo hopes to combine the console with mobile games, and hopes for the vast China market.
In 2020, the "ninth generation" of game consoles is about to open, and the game industry will face another round of reshuffle of technology and content creativity. The game industry will be "polarized": the head manufacturers will be strong and constantly expand the ecosystem, and the vertical and niche manufacturers will show a trend of letting a hundred flowers blossom.
Tencent, after cooperating with Nintendo to introduce Switch, may become a breaker in the host market in China. Nintendo’s creativity and IP, coupled with Tencent’s traffic and operational capabilities, will undoubtedly constitute the "golden combination" of the game industry. Netease has been concentrating on R&D resources and developing into large-scale high-end games, and overseas investment and mergers and acquisitions will play a vital role. Perfect World is the only A-share game company with a strong console game team, which enjoys a good reputation in European and American markets. The cooperation with Tencent will help to share the first slice of the domestic console market. Game live broadcast platforms such as Tiger Tooth Live will get higher quality and more creative content sources because of upgrading the host and opening up the China market.
Risk warning: supervision continues to tighten; Player’s aesthetic fatigue; The product life cycle is exhausted; The valuation is high.
"There was a time when I liked many video games, such as Pac-Man. Now, these games are really boring. They all look exactly the same. In the game, you just want to kill the foreign invaders, and then it’s over. How boring! "
— — Chris Foudy, a 12-year-old boy from New Jersey, USA; Quoted from The New York Times report on October 17, 1983.
Pocket monster: Video Games from Casino to Thousands of Households
In 1962, a group of MIT students completed the first recorded video game in human history on the DEC minicomputer in the laboratory: Spacewar；; This game allows two players to control spaceships and shoot at each other. At that time, the use of computers was almost limited to academic and complex business purposes, and it was first discovered that it could be used for entertainment. Soon, Spacewar became very popular in American academic circles, and some people even specially developed external devices such as handles.
The problem is that computers in the 1960s and 1970s were still very expensive, and the "home computer" market was not yet born. Is there a way to let consumers play video games? Some clever R&D personnel think that if a "dedicated game machine" can be customized and operated for a fee, it is possible to create a sustainable business model. In 1971, the first "arcades" were born in the United States: they run games similar to Spacewar, which can be played by 2~4 people, and are usually placed in bars, shopping centers and other large entertainment places. These arcades have attracted a certain amount of sales and attention, but they are not popular yet.
In 1972, the newly established Atari Company developed a game simulating table tennis: Pong. From the present point of view, this game is simple as hell: the light spot on the screen represents table tennis, and the straight line represents the racket. What the player has to do is to manipulate the racket to hit the table tennis to the opponent. However, for consumers at that time, it was almost a spectacle — — Within one year of its launch, Pong arcade sold 2,500 units, sweeping the entertainment places in big cities in the United States and selling them overseas. Since then, the arcade industry began to grow at a high speed, and video games entered the mainstream consumers’ field of vision.
Almost at the same time as the arcade industry started, the first home game console was born in human history: in September 1972, Magnavox, an American electronic product manufacturer, released the Odyssey game console. Magnavox Odyssey is composed of integrated circuits, with a simple controller, and the video signal is output to the TV. Theoretically, it is suitable for any home user with TV. Because the concept of "electronic game" has not yet been born, the long and funny concept of "closed-circuit television electronic casino" has been used in advertising. The games carried by this game console include table tennis, skiing, tennis, cat and mouse … … Most of the gameplay is very similar to Pong.
Although Magnavox Odyssey’s functions are not perfect and its games are single, it has indeed achieved commercial success — — At the beginning of its release, in 1972, the sales volume exceeded 100,000 units; By 1974, the total sales volume was close to 300,000 units. Considering the price of $99.99, this means about $30 million in sales revenue! In 1974, Magnavox was acquired by Dutch home appliance giant Philips. Since then, with the support of Philips, a series of derivative and improved models of game consoles have been manufactured and promoted to many countries around the world; The total sales of Odyssey series hosts exceeded 1 million units. Undoubtedly, it was one of the most successful household electronic products in 1970s.
Seeing the huge potential of the home game console market, Atari, the arcade overlord, is certainly unwilling to lag behind. In 1975, he joined hands with Sears, a retail giant, to launch Home Pong, the home version of Pong. This host is not successful, but Atari has accumulated valuable experience in the home market. Since then, toy giant Coleco also broke into the market and launched Telstar home console. During this period, most game consoles are "bound": there is no distinction between software and hardware, and each console will have several games embedded, and players can only play these games. In view of the fact that most games are simple and similar, and players don’t need to buy any extra games, the "game software market" has not yet been born.
When the American game console market is developing in full swing, a large number of manufacturers from electronics, toys and entertainment equipment industries are closely following this emerging industry in Japan on the other side of the ocean. Among them, Sega, Nanmeng Palace, Nintendo and other enterprises all entered the arcade market in the mid-1970s and achieved some success. Nintendo released the Color TV-Game series consoles in Japan in 1977, with a total sales volume of 3 million — — This is the highest-selling game console in the 1970s! However, at this time, the focus of the video game industry is in the United States, and what happened in Japan has not attracted much attention.
At the end of 1970s, electronic games, as a form of mass entertainment, have been widely accepted and become a new industry in the United States, Europe and Japan. In the future, the famous game giants such as Atari, Nintendo and Sega have all joined the battle. However, in the eyes of mainstream consumers, the difference between "video games" and "toys" is not particularly obvious, and many home game consoles are even sold with toys. In the era of rapid development of computer technology, the game industry also needs rapid development.
The second generation: from "fire cooking oil, flowers with brocade" to "white land is really clean"
In November 1976, Fairchild Semiconductor released an epoch-making game console — — Channel F. This host is equipped with an independent CPU, and its computing power is far stronger than all previous competing products; Using removable cassette memory, you can change the game software at any time. These epoch-making changes mean that the game console is completely out of the category of "toys", but closer to the computer. So far, the global video game industry has entered the "second generation".
Fairchild Channel F did not achieve commercial success, but it inspired arcade giant Atari, who launched the famous Atari 2600 console in September 1977. The infrastructure of this mainframe is similar to that of the home computer at that time, with independent CPU and cassette storage, as well as standardized rocker controller. With the support of powerful computing power, Atari 2600 can run color games, and the graphic performance effect is greatly improved, thus opening the door for more complex gameplay.
Although a great breakthrough has been made in technology, the sales of Atari 2600 can only be regarded as tepid: from 1977 to 1978, only one million units were sold. After all, the entire home game console market is so large that it lacks "killer content". At the same time, the arcade market is in the "golden age", and masterpieces emerge one after another; The personal computer market is also rising, and the Apple II computer has just been released, attracting many home users. Fortunately, Warner Communications (now Warner Entertainment) acquired Atari in 1976 and provided huge financial support, otherwise the company might not survive.
In January, 1980, the turning point of fate came: arcade game Space Invader was transplanted to Atari 2600, which was the long-awaited "killer content" in the home console industry! Previously, Space Invader arcade sold more than 300,000 units worldwide; Now, as long as you buy the Atari mainframe, you can take arcade game, which is popular all over the world, home to play. What a temptation! In 1980, the sales volume of Atari 2600 reached 7 million units, and the sales volume of Space Invador cassette exceeded 2 million units. Space Invador became the first home game with sales exceeding $100 million.
Since then, Atari has become unstoppable. It continues to transplant excellent arcade game to its own home computers, and has introduced new models such as Atari 2700 and 5200, and its technical parameters have been continuously improved. On Christmas Day in 1980, children all over America clamored for Atari game consoles as gifts. In 1981, Atari became an "unstoppable monster": the annual sales revenue reached 1.1 billion US dollars, becoming the largest subsidiary of Warner Communications, accounting for 75% of the global video game market (it is also very strong in the arcade market), with 10,000 employees.
By the end of 1982, Atari series mainframes had sold about 30 million units, half of which came from the United States. Home appliance giant Philips, toy giants Coleco and Mattel also launched their second-generation home consoles. In 1982, the sales of video game cassettes in the United States were $3.2 billion, exceeding the sales of personal computer software. No one expected that in just 12 months, the once-thriving American video game industry would fall into the brink of extinction — — This is the infamous "Atari collapse".
The problem lies in the content side. A large number of developers have flooded into the video game industry, believing that the market is big enough and users are stupid enough, even if the developed products are rubbish, users will buy them! At that time, the home game software market was in a disorderly state, and anyone could develop software and distribute goods in the channel. At that time, the media was still underdeveloped, and it was difficult for users to choose products according to word of mouth; Game development technology and creativity are also very immature, and products are homogenized. In June 1982, the Atari mainframe platform had a total of 100 games; In December of that year, this number soared to 400.
Atari has no control over the game distribution and has no interest in controlling it. At the beginning of 1983, there were at least 100 console game developers in the United States, and even competitors’ products could be listed for money by changing their names. This situation is certainly not normal, but everyone thinks that it is still far from the day of shuffling. In 1982, Atari CEO said: One day, half of American families will have game consoles, and then the bubble of the game industry will burst. Until today, this goal has not been achieved!
It was E.T. released in December 1982 that finally caused the market collapse. This is an adventure game developed by Atari and adapted from the movie of the same name. The New York Times predicted that since the film was very successful, the game would certainly be successful — — This is probably the earliest "movie-tour linkage". The game "E.T." was the most anticipated Christmas gift for American teenagers, and sold 1.5 million copies. However, when users really play this game, they are stunned by its crude and indiscriminate creation. The media comments at that time included: "boring"; "poor image quality"; "It is impossible for someone to play customs clearance"; "You should apply for a refund" … …
Game makers always underestimate the IQ of users, thinking that they can accept any bad work. However, there is a critical point for users’ patience. Once they break through the bottom line, they will withdraw all support in cold blood. At the beginning of 1983, the retail channels in the United States found that the game shelves, which were originally overcrowded, were actually left unattended! As the chief culprit of E.T., about 3 million tapes were returned by channels. The original price of the game cassette was $35, but now it has to be discounted to $5. In all fairness, this is not only the fault of E.T., but Pac-Man, which went on sale at the same time, was rated as "the worst game in history" by many media. Nowadays, video games have become synonymous with "high quality and high price", and playing games is simply stupid!
By 1985, the American console game industry had actually died out, and the market size of game software was only $100 million, and dozens of game developers collapsed. Most retail channels decided to permanently cancel the video game counters. Even arcade game has been affected — — 15% arcade halls in the United States closed, and the average income of the surviving arcade halls fell by 40%. As the chief culprit, Atari was split and sold by its parent company Warner Communications, and is no longer an important game company.
When the American game industry was shocked by the "Atari collapse", Nintendo was in the spring breeze in Japan on the other side of the ocean. In 1980, Nintendo released Game & Watch, which is one of the earliest portable game machines (handhelds) in the world. Although the computing power is weak, it can only display a narrow black-and-white picture, but with the support of excellent industrial design and high-quality game content, this product has achieved a total sales of 43.4 million in a long life cycle, becoming Nintendo’s first successful game hardware product. No one expected that Nintendo would begin to dominate the global game industry for more than ten years, and no one could replicate this rule after that.
The second generation of the video game industry ended when Atari collapsed. The winner of this generation is Atari, whose Atari 2600/5200 series mainframes have sold more than 30 million units; But it soon fell to the altar and never returned. Magnavox (Philips), Mattel and Coleco shared the rest of the cake, but they were also badly hurt in the "Atari collapse". At the same time, Nintendo has established an unshakable advantage in the field of handheld devices; Sega is waiting for the opportunity while making money in the arcade industry. The next generation is destined to belong to these Japanese companies.
Historical Lessons of "Atari Collapse": Will it happen again?
The biggest historical lesson left by the "Atari collapse" to the game industry is that content, only content, is what consumers ultimately care about. Without high-quality content, the development of the game market will become passive water and rootless wood. Atari’s rule over the game industry began with "killer content" like Space Invader and ended with "tragic content" like E.T. Since then, a high-quality content ecosystem has become the key to the success of all game console platforms.
Why did Atari lose control of the content? First, it lacks influence on third-party content; In other words, it did not control the distribution process, which led to a large amount of "junk content" flooding into the market and exhausted consumers’ patience. Secondly, it relaxes its independent research and development ability, so it does not have enough excellent first-party content. In 1981, 75% of the game software sales on the Atari platform came from Atari’s first-party games; In 1982, this proportion was reduced to 40%. When competitors frantically poached Atari’s R&D personnel, it did not respond in time.
From the listing of Pong in 1972 to the "Atari crash" in 1982, the video game industry has only gone through ten years of development. This immature industry has not enough experience to face the complicated consumer demand. At the same time, the personal computer market is rising — — In 1977, Apple II computers were launched, and in 1982, IBM PC went on the market. They all had certain game functions. After the collapse of the console game market, a large number of talents and capital flocked to the computer software industry. However, due to the high price of personal computers, they are doomed to be impossible to completely fill the gap left by game consoles.
In 1982, on the eve of the "Atari crash", the global video game market (including software and professional hardware) once reached 42 billion US dollars. By 1985, the number had dropped to $14 billion, and most of it came from the arcade market. If Nintendo and Sega hadn’t taken Japan as their base camp to find another way, the game industry might have fallen into years of decline. "Atari collapse" has shifted the development center of the video game industry from the United States to Japan, which has absolute advantages in hardware research and development, content research and development and market. The United States once again regained its position as the center of the global game industry, and it will have to wait until Microsoft joins the war in the early 21st century, when the United States has taken the lead in the field of information technology. However, the pattern of "one monopoly" in the American game market has never reappeared.
Nintendo era: Games are art, industrial chain and lifestyle.
"Atari collapsed because they gave too much freedom to third-party developers, which led to the market being filled with junk games!"
— — Yamauchi Pu, President of Nintendo, 1986
"We will attract the interest of many players aged 19 to 27. They used to be fans of Atari games, but later they got tired of the whole system."
— — Bruce Lowry, President of Sega USA, 1986
The third generation: the overlord of red and white machines comes, and the game market is unified all over the world.
In 1983, just after the "Atari Crash" broke out, Nintendo released the famous FC(Famicom) mainframe in Japan, which was later called NES； in North America. In China, it is commonly known as the "red and white machine". At first, Nintendo wanted to develop a home computer with a keyboard and a mouse, as well as games and learning functions. In the process of development, Nintendo realized that users need a more dedicated and cost-effective game machine, and other functions are purely cumbersome. Finally, the main body of the red and white machine is set to only have the game function, but the extended function can be realized through the external device.
Compared with Atari 2600, the hardware configuration of the red-and-white machine has been greatly improved: it uses 8-bit CPU (the same as the former), has 2K memory (the former is 128B), and has added a special graphics processing unit and 2K video memory, so it is far ahead in picture performance. The game screen of red and white machine is based on mosaic, which has smooth multi-directional and multi-level screen scroll function and can accommodate large scenes, thus making complex action shooting games possible. In terms of control, Nintendo introduced a handle with multiple buttons for the home console for the first time based on the experience of Game & Watch handheld, which greatly enriched the possibility of game control.
Although the hardware performance of Red & White Machine is good, what really makes it successful is the content: On the first day of Japanese launch, there were three games listed at the same time: donkey kong, Little King Kong and Popeye, all of which were transplanted from the arcade by Nintendo. Donkey kong, in particular, is far more difficult and playable than most of its contemporaries, creating a category of "platform action" and becoming the first "killer content" of red and white machines. By the end of 1984, the red and white machine had achieved 2.5 million sales in Japan, and it was undoubtedly the local overlord. However, the biggest challenge is in the United States — — The population and economic scale of the United States is more than twice that of Japan. It used to be the birthplace and the largest market of video games until the "Atari crash" ruined everything. Only by occupying the United States can we rule the world.
In October 1985, the first batch of red and white machines were listed in new york; In September 1986, the red and white machines were listed in all major cities in the United States. The media is not optimistic about Nintendo, and Electronic Games magazine declared: "The North American game market has died, which will be Nintendo’s miscalculation." Yes, two years ago, so many giants were out — — Atari once had 10,000 employees and 1.1 billion US dollars in revenue; Philips, one of the largest home appliance giants in the world; Coleco, one of the largest toy companies in North America; Mattel, a manufacturing and entertainment group spanning many fields … … How can Nintendo be an exception?
Nintendo has only one trump card: content. Nintendo President Pu Yamauchi blamed Atari’s collapse on "losing control of the content", so he should thoroughly control the content and improve the quality from two aspects: first, release a large number of excellent first-party self-developed content; Secondly, strict control is imposed on third-party developers to prohibit shoddy content from entering the market. In the red and white machine market, Nintendo is the only distributor, and all the cassette production, sales scheduling and channel distribution of games are carried out under its supervision. Games that pass the audit will be stamped with the seal of "Nintendo Quality Assurance".
Nintendo did it. Its first-party game lineup is strong enough: Super Mario Bros., Duckling, the legend of zelda, Fist Without False Hair … … Breakthroughs have been made in gameplay and themes, and even the most discerning consumers admit that Nintendo games mean "fun". By the end of 1986, 1.4 million red and white machines had been sold in North America. Nintendo almost single-handedly revived the North American game market — — In 1985, the market was only $100 million; In 1986, after the arrival of Nintendo, the market scale suddenly expanded to 430 million US dollars, of which 320 million US dollars went to Nintendo!
By 1990, 35% of Japanese families and 30% of American families had Nintendo red and white machines; At the same time, only 23% of American families have personal computers. Now, Nintendo has completely mastered the users and can do whatever it wants. Countless developers bow to it and endure harsh review and exploitation. Contra, Shuangduan Dragon, Salomon Snake, The Brave Fight the Dragon, The Rockman … … Countless third-party content has landed on the red and white machine platform, forming a virtuous circle: the better the content, the stronger Nintendo’s control over users, and the more it can attract high-quality third-party content. After all, Nintendo is a "benevolent dictator", and the control channel is to let users enjoy high-quality content.
When Nintendo is calling the shots, competitors are not absent. In July 1983, on the same day that the red and white machine was released, Sega, an arcade giant, released the SG-1000 mainframe; Unfortunately, due to the lack of high-quality content and chaotic market strategy, SG-1000 was quickly squeezed out of the market by the powerful red and white machine. Sega was not discouraged, but launched a brand-new Mark III mainframe in 1985. In 1986, the host was renamed Master System and listed in North America. Compared with the red and white machine, the biggest advantage of Master is its powerful hardware performance: in the era of rapid development of semiconductor technology, the time difference of two years means comprehensive progress in the fields of CPU, memory, image processing and audio. Moreover, the pricing of Master in North America is the same as that of red and white machines, and the advertising investment is almost the same. Sega has every reason to expect success.
Sega didn’t succeed because Nintendo’s "content barrier" was insurmountable. Sega has some high-quality games transplanted from arcade, but it can’t be compared with Mario, donkey kong and Zelda of Nintendo. After gaining hegemony, Nintendo began to bully third parties to develop "exclusive games" for themselves; Whoever dares to develop games for Sega will certainly come to no good end. As a result, Sega lost the competition for third-party content. By 1988, Nintendo had 95% of the Japanese game market and 83% of the North American game market. Sega has only succeeded in emerging markets such as Brazil.
In the third generation, the game console market has formed a "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" pattern: the North American market is the largest; Japan is second, but it is the birthplace of the new trend; Europe and other regions followed. To be successful, a mainframe must win at least one market in Japan and North America. Nintendo red and white machine won two markets at the same time; Sega Master was defeated in Japan, but its sales in North America were not bad, so it obtained the right to exist. Europe should have been a market of the same size as North America, but it has not yet become a battleground for military strategists due to the lack of preliminary preparation and insufficient economic integration.
In the early 1990s, Nintendo and Sega’s next-generation game consoles were listed, and the third generation of the video game industry ended. However, in China, Latin America, Southeast Asia and other developing countries, the life cycle of the fake red and white machine lasted until the late 1990s. The little geniuses and bullies we are familiar with are all born out of red and white machines; The sales of these cottage hosts have never been accurately counted. Nintendo red and white machine (Famicom/NES) is undoubtedly the dominant player, with a total sales volume of 61.91 million (excluding Shanzhai machine); Sega Master(Mark III) followed with 17.8 million. In the handheld market, Game & Watch is still the only mainstream product, and Nintendo’s dominant position is unshakable.
The fourth generation: Sega and NEC took turns to challenge Nintendo, which fell short.
Nintendo won the third-generation competition completely, and its management inevitably became conservative and complacent, and was reluctant to launch the next-generation mainframe. At the end of 1980s, computer technology was undergoing a revolution: 16-bit processors replaced 8-bit processors and became the mainstream, which led to a great improvement in computing power and visual effects. The hardware performance of the red and white machine was not strong even in the mid-1980s, but it was even more outdated a few years later. Competitors decided to overwhelm Nintendo in technology: NEC was the first to launch the PC Engine console in October 1987, which was also the first 16-bit home game console; Followed by Sega, Genesis mainframe was launched in October 1988, and it was renamed Mega Drive(MD) and listed in North America one year later.
NEC’s PC Engine has achieved great success in Japan. Since its first year of sale, its sales volume has surpassed that of red and white machines. In addition to the advantages of hardware performance, NEC’s success also benefits from high-quality third-party content: Nanmenggong and Kelemei, two major game developers, have long been dissatisfied with Nintendo’s channel monopoly policy and do not want to put all their eggs in one basket, so they chose to rely on NEC. At first, Nintendo still sat firmly on Diaoyutai; However, when NEC and Sega burned the war to the North American market in 1989, Nintendo could no longer sit still and decided to speed up the research and development of the new mainframe.
Ironically, when the Nintendo Empire faced a crisis, its old rival Sega helped it objectively. In August 1989, NEC launched a high-profile North American version of PC Engine (renamed as TurboGrafx), and invested a huge amount of advertising money to promote it as a "direct substitute for red and white machines". What is surprising is that NEC failed miserably in the North American market, and only sold less than 1 million mainframes from 1989 to 1991! At the same time, Sega MD is in the infinite scenery, once occupying 65% of the 16-bit game console market in North America. NEC and Sega have advantages in Japan and North America respectively, and no one has the ability to seize the global hegemony, which gives Nintendo a valuable breathing space.
Why can Sega MD take the lead in North America? The key is the content! Although Sega is a Japanese company, it was founded by Americans, actually maintaining the "dual headquarters" model in Japan and North America. Therefore, Sega understands the tastes of North American players, and launched a series of sports games on the MD mainframe, including basketball, rugby and boxing, and invited many celebrities to speak for them. Kalinske, the new CEO of Sega USA, put forward the "razor theory": the mainframe is like a razor, and the game is like a blade. The key is to reduce the price of the mainframe, launch localized games, and make money by "selling blades". In June 1991, Sega’s sharpest "blade" went on the market: sonic the hedgehog, a platform action game comparable to Super Mario! The North American media praised Sonik as "the greatest game in history", and many players bought an MD specially for playing Sonik.
Now, Nintendo is under great pressure: its action is too slow, and the new generation of host SFC (called SNES in North America) was not listed in Japan until November 1990 and in North America until August 1991. Players who can’t stand waiting have turned to NEC or Sega. Although it was launched 2~3 years later than its competitors, the hardware performance of SFC has no advantage. Nintendo’s only advantage comes from the content side: SFC’s first games include Super Mario World and F-Zero, both of which are first-party self-developed masterpieces; The legend of zelda and Super Mario Kart also went on sale immediately. Facts have proved that at least Japanese consumers are still willing to pay for Mario and Zelda. Nintendo SFC came from behind in Japan, and the challenges of NEC and Sega were stifled in the cradle.
But in North America, it is another scene. Sega MD’s first-Mover advantage is too strong, and it has attracted a large number of third-party developers represented by EA in North America. Nintendo’s control over distribution rights has loosened, and it is difficult to prevent third parties from developing games for competitors such as Sega. Therefore, the number of "exclusive content" of SFC platform has dropped significantly. However, Nintendo’s "ecosystem" has not collapsed, and it still maintains full control over content review, cassette manufacturing, distribution and channels. At the same time, Nintendo SFC has taken the lead in the emerging RPG category, and other masterpieces such as "The Brave Fight the Dragon" and "Final Fantasy" are monopolized by SFC, which has brought back some market share for it.
Although it almost lost on the home console battlefield, no one can challenge Nintendo on the console battlefield: it launched the famous Game Boy in 1989, and countless children used it to play Tetris and Super Mario Paradise; Game Gear launched by Sega in 1990 was quickly defeated. Game Boy’s success comes not only from high-quality content, but also from sufficient battery capacity and good marketing. In contrast, Sega focused on the MD mainframe during this period and failed to provide enough support for the Game Gear console, so it lost the game without any suspense.
In the late fourth generation, Nintendo, with its strong historical accumulation and high-quality content, tenaciously tied with Sega in North America, but maintained a big advantage in Japan. Nintendo SFC became the winner of this generation with a global sales volume of 49.1 million; Sega MD ranked second with 33.75 million yuan, posing a serious threat to Nintendo; NEC PC Engine only sold 10 million units, mainly because it lost the north American market. In terms of handhelds, Nintendo Game Boy (including later Game Boy Color) achieved an astonishing sales of 119 million, while Sega Game Gear only sold 10.62 million. In this generation, NEC and Sega both got the chance to challenge Nintendo, but it fell short. However, the challenger saw hope: Nintendo will make mistakes, and its ecosystem is unstable and can be subverted.
Nintendo’s question: Is it content control channel or channel control content?
There is no doubt that Nintendo won the third and fourth generation console wars, relying on powerful content. The red and white machine rose from donkey kong, because Super Mario Bros reached its peak; The breakthrough of SFC is inseparable from Super Mario World. Sega MD almost succeeded in counterattack, and half of it was due to sonic the hedgehog. The overall strategies of the two giants are very similar: taking strong first-party content as bait, establishing a huge player base, thus controlling channels; Taking the control of channels as bait, let third-party content parties jump into their own chariots, thus providing more and better content.
Nintendo beat Sega for two reasons. First of all, Nintendo’s first-party content is stronger, not only in high quality, but also in large quantity. Secondly, Nintendo imposes harsh control on third-party developers, which makes developers completely lose control over the schedule, channels and market resources; No wonder, the Japanese media at that time regarded Nintendo system as "feudal personal attachment". In the United States, Sega took sports games and Sonik as a breakthrough, and opened a weak link in the Nintendo system. In the final analysis, only by mastering the content first can we master the channel; The reverse is not true.
In the fourth generation, Nintendo’s weaknesses are exposed: it is not good at technology and even skeptical about technological breakthroughs. After all, Nintendo developed from a card company and does not have the so-called "technology gene". Nintendo SFC released in 1990 is a pure 16-bit host; Sega MD, released in 1988, has 32-bit extension function, thus greatly extending its life cycle. Nintendo was also resistant to the CD-ROM storage mode that was booming at that time. When Sega introduced CD-ROM peripherals and Philips introduced CD-based hosts, Nintendo only pretended to discuss the possibility of using CD-ROM storage with Sony, but actually did not adopt it.
Nintendo’s resistance to optical disk storage, in the final analysis, still wants to safeguard vested interests. Under the "Nintendo system", content developers have no access to cassettes, and the production, transportation and distribution of game cassettes are all carried out under the supervision of Nintendo. The cost of cassette tape is a muddled account, from which Nintendo has made huge profits and occupied a lot of liquidity of third parties. In contrast, optical discs are cheaper, more standardized and more transparent storage carriers, so switching to optical discs is definitely not good news for Nintendo. In the next generation, Nintendo Empire will still stick to cassette storage, which will lead to its collapse.
Sony dominates and Microsoft enters: the formation and solidification of the three pillars
"We went to the board of Sega, and they almost completely rejected the idea of cooperating with Sony. They said, "That’s a stupid idea. Sony has no idea how to make hardware. They also don’t know how to make software. Why should we cooperate with them? "
— — Tom Kalinske, CEO of Sega, recalled the decision-making process that Sega refused to cooperate with Sony to develop the mainframe in 1993.
The fifth generation: The world has suffered from Nintendo for a long time, and Sony rose up.
When Sony announced that it would develop a next-generation game console, no one believed it was serious. Yes, Sony is a home appliance giant and has some electronic and computer technical strength, but it has never played any games. As early as 1988, Nintendo found Sony, hoping to develop peripherals with optical disk storage function for SFC host; Sony, on the other hand, wants to launch a new mainframe with its own brand, which is compatible with SFC and completely uses optical disk storage. After perceiving each other’s selfishness, Nintendo suddenly announced the suspension of cooperation with Sony in 1991, which made Sony feel embarrassed.
Even if Sony doesn’t have its own abacus, its cooperation with Nintendo will hardly have a good result, because the "Nintendo system" is based on cassettes, and CDs are not conducive to this system. Sony hated Nintendo, and soon found Sega to seek cooperation. They came straight to the point: "We hate Nintendo, and you hate Nintendo. We are playing games, but we don’t know what to do." The CEO of Sega USA wanted to cooperate with Sony very much, and even sent a group of engineers, but the board of Sega finally rejected the proposal. For the next twenty years, Sega regretted this decision all the time.
The fifth generation of game consoles are facing the following technological changes: first, computer 3D graphics technology is on the rise, and the first batch of 3D games have been born, but the technical route is not yet stable; Secondly, CD has become a kind of storage carrier with high cost performance, and it is the general trend for game consoles to carry CD-ROM. Thirdly, with the maturity of hardware decoding technology, the game can embed a large number of animations and even real-life images; Finally, the audio quality of the game has been greatly improved. In the final analysis, everyone’s differences focus on two points: how to realize 3D games? Do you want to use CD storage?
There are three solutions to the technical problems of 3D games: the first is to solve them by video playback, that is to say, the game is mainly based on 2D images, but 3D animated images are used in some key scenes. Because the animation is recorded in advance and does not need real-time calculation, the requirements for hardware are greatly reduced. In 1993, the Interactive Multiplayer mainframe launched by 3DO was based on this route — — It’s like a DVD player that can play games. However, animated images are not interactive and are doomed to be the mainstream solution. 3DO basically failed without any suspense.
The second scheme is to hand over most of the 3D graphics processing to software, that is, "soft acceleration", and the hardware does not undertake the 3D acceleration function. Both Sony PS and Sega SS hosts use this scheme, which can only present the most basic 3D images, which is simply terrible today. The third scheme is to use high-performance hardware to realize the so-called "true 3D picture". Nintendo N64 mainframe uses this scheme, which theoretically has the strongest 3D graphics processing capability in the mid-1990s.
For the problem of CD storage, Sony PS, Sega SS and even 3DO all use CD-ROM as the main storage, and only Nintendo stubbornly insists on cassette storage; The primary reason is to maintain the "Nintendo system", followed by reducing costs. Nintendo management also naively believes that although the capacity of optical discs is larger, the reading speed is slower, which may not bring a better user experience. However, game developers definitely prefer CDs: at that time, the storage capacity of mainstream cassettes was only 8~64M, but CDs were 650M! Large-scale 3D games are difficult to fit into cassettes, not to mention the higher production cost of cassettes.
In December 1994, Sony Playstation(PS) went public in Japan. Nintendo dismissed this and thought that it was impossible to sell more than 1 million units of this console. However, Sony is well prepared, and it knows that the key to defeating Nintendo lies in content — — Can PS host provide classic games that can be compared with Mario and Zelda? To this end, Sony has set up huge game studios in Europe and Japan to develop first-party content; It also started early negotiations with third-party manufacturers such as Nanmeng Palace, Kelemei and Squawell. Obviously, third-party developers are fed up with the "Nintendo system" and can’t accept Nintendo’s stupid decision to still use cassette storage in the next generation of consoles; They are willing to take a gamble on Sony.
In 1995, PS console released 78, 47 and 34 games in Japan, North America and Europe respectively. In 1996, these three figures rose to 219, 186 and 107. Such a huge content library is enough to support the survival of a host. Sony’s marketing strategy is also very effective: the price of PS in North America is only $299. Sega’s new generation host Saturn(SS) was released at almost the same time, but the price was $399! This price gap makes the SS host basically lose its competitiveness. Sony has completely learned the "razor theory", and it is even willing to bear losses on the "razor" in the hope that it will earn all the money from selling the "blade" in the future.
Sega, which almost overturned Nintendo in the fourth generation, overturned almost as soon as she went out in the fifth generation. Its financial resources can’t beat Sony — — In the British market, Sony can invest 20 million pounds in advertising budget, while Sega can only invest 4 million pounds. In addition, Sega was obsessed with the success of the previous generation. In 1994, it also introduced an expansion device that could upgrade the MD mainframe to 32-bit, which greatly dispersed its R&D and market resources. Moreover, the initial game lineup of Sega SS was not strong enough, especially the lack of high-quality first-party content like Sonik, which could not attract players.
Sony has made a temporary lead, but its position is not stable: Nintendo’s next-generation console N64 is scheduled to be listed in 1996. Before that, Sony must introduce high-quality content as much as possible and expand its leading edge. Nanmeng Palace brought Air Battle of the King, Tiequan 2, Capcom brought Resident Evil, and Sony developed The Dangerous Wolf itself. These exclusive contents are very important. However, the most important thing is Squawell’s Final Fantasy 7: it is the first game to realize "cinematic narration" and the most important RPG in history. Because the game capacity is too large, it is impossible to fit it into the cassette, Final Fantasy has been embraced by Sony. Nintendo brought this on itself!
In June and September, 1996, Nintendo N64 mainframe landed in Japan and the United States successively. In all fairness, its 3D graphics processing capability far exceeds that of its competitors, with Z-buffer and full-screen anti-aliasing, and its polygon generation capability is almost twice that of the PS host. However, the outcome of the host war is never determined by technical parameters. Nintendo’s first-party content is still as powerful as ever: Super Mario 64, Legend of Zelda: The Flute of Time, Mario Racing 64》… … On the opposite side, there are such powerful enemies as GT Racing, Final Fantasy 7 and Tomb Raider 2. In the United States, N64 has achieved limited success, and its sales even surpassed PS for a short time. In Japan, N64 was beaten out of the water, not even comparable to Sega SS; In Europe, Sony’s distribution system completely overwhelmed Nintendo.
By the end of 1998, the situation became clear: Nintendo was defeated, its empire collapsed and its system collapsed. In the living rooms of thousands of families in Japan, the United States and Qian Qian, it is no longer the classic melody of Super Mario; The children’s holiday wish for the Christmas tree is no longer to get a the legend of zelda; Game developers all over the world don’t have to endure the strict distribution control of Nintendo Heart Club. Executives from Sony, Philips, Squawell and Nanmeng Palace no longer have to wear suits and pay homage to Nintendo’s headquarters in Kyoto, Japan. President Yamauchi Pu, who is over 70 years old, did not spend much time mourning his empire. He quickly devoted himself to the development of the next generation mainframe. Everything lost can be won back, the key is how long it will take.
The winner of the fifth generation console war is Sony PS, with global sales exceeding 100 million units; It didn’t win much in America, but it won a lot in Japan and won a great victory in Europe. Nintendo N64 was not too ugly to lose, and the sales of 32.63 million units were decent. Sega SS has a sales volume of only 9.26 million, shivering between the two major competitors. Showstopper, such as 3DO, NEC and Atari, didn’t gain any market share. In terms of handhelds, Nintendo Game Boy Color has no real competitors.
The sixth generation: Sega is on the verge of bankruptcy, and Microsoft goes into battle in person.
Since 1987, Sega has been working hard to "bring down the Nintendo Empire". Now, the Nintendo empire has collapsed, but the new overlord is Sony with no qualifications. In the third and fourth generations, Sega is at least the second child in the industry; In the fifth generation, it can only be relegated to the third place, and its sales volume has plummeted. Due to the failure of SS mainframe, Sega laid off 1/3 of its North American employees and replaced its president. In fiscal year 1997-1998, it lost as much as 35.6 billion yen. However, Sega was not convinced. At that time, the CEO of Sega USA said: "The game of SS console is very good, but the hardware is not strong."
Therefore, Sega started the research and development of the next generation mainframe early. In 1997, it once chose the hot 3DFX Voodoo series graphics card as the graphics solution, which was also the most mature commercial solution at that time. However, sega finally gave up 3DFX and chose Hitachi’s display chip. This move angered North American game makers, represented by EA, who preferred the technology of 3DFX. Next, Sega made two more mistakes: using GD-ROM (a high-density CD-ROM) as the memory, thus losing the ability to play CD and DVD media; Working with Microsoft to adopt Windows CE operating system proved to be useless afterwards.
Sega Dreamcast(DC) mainframe was listed in Japan and North America in November 1998 and June 1999 respectively, becoming the earliest mainframe of the sixth generation. Drawing lessons from the failure of SS mainframe, Sega DC’s pricing is only $199, which is incredibly low! The problem is that there is not enough content in the initial release of DC console, and third parties are busy developing games for Sony PS, while Sega’s first-party game "Sonic Adventure" is not enough to support the overall situation. EA refused to develop games for DC from the beginning, so this console has always lacked high-quality sports games.
The record of DC mainframe in the initial stage of listing is quite good: in Japan, 900 thousand units were sold in the first three months; In the United States, 220,000 units were sold in 24 hours, and 500,000 units were sold in the first two weeks; In Europe, 500,000 units were sold in the first two months. Sega American CEO exclaimed: "Our first 18 months were amazing, and DC was so hot … … We really think we will win! " However, since the end of 1999, the sales of DC in all markets have slowed down significantly: in the United States and Europe, the total sales in 2000 were not as good as those in the fourth quarter of 1999. Why? Because everyone is waiting for Sony PS2— — This legendary host with powerful hardware capabilities and rich game content.
Sony PS2 went on the market 15 months later than Sega DC, and its performance is more powerful, but it is still at the same level as a whole. The hardware architecture of PS2 is very strange. It uses Sony’s customized CPU and GPU, so it is very difficult for developers to program. In fact, most game developers can’t make full use of the performance of the PS2. However, Sony has one of the biggest killers: the support of many third-party developers, coupled with the increasingly powerful first-party content. At the beginning of 2000, Scowell announced that all three sequels of Final Fantasy series would be monopolized by PS2, which almost sentenced DC to death.
In September, 2001, Nintendo’s GameCube mainframe belatedly joined the sixth-generation battle. This time, Nintendo turned over a new leaf, adopted CD-ROM storage, and simplified the hardware architecture as much as possible, trying to create a simple development environment for the third party. In fact, the performance of GameCube is slightly better than that of PS2. However, who can challenge Sony’s huge game content library? The third-party content barrier that once made Nintendo proud is now Sony’s property. Nintendo can only rely on the first-party content to support it — — The legend of zelda: The Rhythm of the Wind, The Forest of Animals, Sunshine Mario, Nintendo Stars Fight … … It can survive, but it can’t return to the hegemony.
There is another reason for the success of Sony PS2: it is equipped with DVD-ROM, so it can watch DVD. In contrast, Sega DC is equipped with GD-ROM, while Nintendo is equipped with miniDVD-ROM, both of which are customized styles and cannot play DVD. 1998 was the year of the rise of DVD, and since then, sales have soared; In 2001, in Britain with a population of 50 million, the sales of DVD discs reached 41.3 million. Buying a PS2 is equivalent to including a DVD player, which greatly broadens its usage scenarios.
Microsoft couldn’t sit still when Sega was defeated and Sony continued to dominate. At that time, it was the era when Microsoft was in the field of computer software, and games and home entertainment had always been the next market that Microsoft coveted. Microsoft once cooperated with Sega to install the Windows CE operating system on the DC host in an attempt to enter the living room of thousands of households. I didn’t expect Sega to show its decline from the beginning of 2000. In 2001, it was on the verge of bankruptcy and forced to withdraw from the game console market. Microsoft knows that it is up to itself now. In March 2000, it first announced its own Xbox game console.
Compared with the consoles of competitors such as Sony and Nintendo, the features of Microsoft Xbox are obvious: First, it almost completely adopts the hardware of mainstream PC, the CPU is a customized version of Intel P3 Celeron, the GPU is a customized version of NVIDIA NV2A, and the memory is also a general PC model; Second, its price is low, which is 30-50% cheaper than the PC with the same configuration, so it can be said that it does not hesitate to spend money; Third, it has almost no industrial design, and it is "stupid", that is, a pile of hardware is stuffed into a heavy box. Xbox is not so much a host as a customized game PC.
By studying the history, Microsoft knows that the success or failure of the console war lies not in the hardware performance, but in the quantity and quality of the game content. Therefore, as early as 1999, Microsoft established a strong game research and development and distribution business through a series of mergers and acquisitions; Before the Xbox went public, Microsoft already had a first-party game lineup headed by Halo. Because Xbox adopts the hardware architecture of general-purpose PC, third-party PC games can be easily transplanted. Sega, who has been out of the console war, brought a lot of high-quality content to Xbox, which helped Microsoft a lot.
Xbox console has only achieved partial success: its performance in North America is acceptable, but it lags far behind PS2；; Average performance in Europe; Almost a complete failure in Japan. After all, Xbox came out too late and lacked the deep roots of Sony and Nintendo. Its game content is mainly shooting, racing and sports (that is, "Gun Qiu Che"), which is not in line with the taste of Japanese players. It is too heavy and ugly, and many players will give up just because of its appearance. Microsoft is definitely losing money on Xbox hardware. It hopes to enter the user’s living room at this cost and gain the fulcrum of the home entertainment market.
At this point, Nintendo has lost two generations of console wars in a row, and its market share is shrinking. However, it did not mix to the brink of bankruptcy like Sega, and still maintained a decent profit. One of the mysteries lies in the handheld market: in 2001, Nintendo launched Game Boy Advance(GBA), which is the only successful handheld in this generation. Since 1983, Nintendo’s dominance of the handheld market has not been interrupted. Why? The reason still lies in the content. "Pokémon" series has supported the sales of Nintendo’s handhelds since the Game Boy era, and created a game of social interaction and online play of handhelds. In addition, Nintendo classic IPS such as Super Mario and Mario Kart also have handheld versions. In the handheld market, relying on Nintendo’s first-party content is enough.
The big winner of the sixth generation console war is Sony PS2, which has achieved an amazing sales volume of 159 million, which is also the highest sales record of game consoles so far. Microsoft Xbox has achieved 24 million sales, two-thirds of which are in the North American market. Nintendo GameCube sold 21.74 million units, ranking third, which is a great shame. Sega DC opened higher and went lower, selling only 9.13 million units. In the handset market, Nintendo GBA sold 81.51 million units, which almost unified the market. At the end of the sixth generation, Sega has been out, and the likes of NEC, Atari and Philips, which used to appear frequently, have basically stopped spoiling the game, and the console war has completely become a game of Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft.
Sony and Microsoft, both outsiders, have different fates.
Among the participants in the console war, Sony and Microsoft have many similarities: both are "outsiders" in the game industry, both have certain technical genes, and both developed their own consoles after repeated market demonstrations. However, Sony became famous in World War I and became more and more brave; Microsoft’s first battle was only unsatisfactory, and it has never achieved a market leading position since then. Microsoft’s strategy of using game consoles as a springboard to enter the home entertainment market has never really succeeded. Why?
Older players still remember that Microsoft once gave great support to the Xbox project team. At the E3 Exhibition in 2001, Bill Gates introduced the Xbox console to the global media with great enthusiasm, and invited the wrestling star "Rock" platform. At that time, Microsoft’s share price was also near the highest point in history. Unfortunately, Microsoft didn’t do much consumer electronics at that time — — The "silly and rough" Xbox is a shame in the history of industrial design. Since then, Microsoft has been spinning around in a dead end, and its Zune media player and Windows Phone phones have all ended in failure.
Xbox’s content library is mainly "Gun Qiu Che", which is in line with the tastes of North American players. However, it lacks the RPG that Japanese players like, and there are no ingenious ACT and AVG on Nintendo platform, which doomed it to be impossible to succeed in Japan. Although Microsoft has attracted many third parties, it has never taken the lead in "exclusive content" — — Most of the masterpieces on Xbox can be played on other hosts or PCs. So, why do players buy Xbox? The only reason is that Microsoft provides huge subsidies and maintains extremely low prices. This business model cannot last long.
Xbox adopts x86 hardware architecture of mainstream PC, which seems to be an epoch-making revolution, but the effect at that time was not obvious — — The function of x86 is not powerful enough to crush other hardware architectures, and there is no advantage in cost. Sony and Nintendo adopt closed customization systems, but they have established deep relationships with third-party developers and can provide good technical guidance to each other. As a result, Xbox has become four unlike: it uses PC hardware, but it can’t directly use the game content on the PC side; It looks like a host and lacks deep optimization. In fact, in the next generation, Microsoft will give up the mainstream PC architecture. If I had known this, why should I have?
Afterglow of the sunset: Time has changed the game console into a "dinosaur in the living room"?
"The game has reached a dead end. Creating complex games with advanced graphics technology used to be the golden rule of success, but it has failed now. The biggest problem is: developers need to satisfy hardcore players, who want the game content to be richer and more complicated; However, they also need to satisfy ordinary players, who have little knowledge of the game. Obviously, if we don’t change, the game will have no future. "
— — Nintendo President Satoru Iwata, March 2004.
The Seventh Generation: The return of Nintendo King, Sony and Microsoft have their own difficult experiences.
Nintendo is out of date, its console is getting worse and worse, and the game IP is losing its appeal to a new generation. In 2002, President Yamauchi Pu, who once created the Nintendo Empire, retired, and many third-party developers have been worried about his strength in that year. His successor is Satoru Iwata, a "talented programmer", who once participated in the development of games such as Kirby of the Stars and Pokémon: Gold and Silver. At the Tokyo Game Exhibition in 2003, Satoru Iwata expounded his strategic thinking: the game has reached a dead end, and everyone is trying to spend more money, use more dazzling technology and develop more complicated games. Host manufacturers are competing for a limited number of hard-core players. Why not compete for the "non-players" group?
Satoru Iwata decided to learn from "non-professionals". He integrates many departments within the company, advocates a cooperative working atmosphere, and allows "departments unrelated to games" to give advice to the game business. When conceiving the next generation of game consoles, Satoru Iwata encouraged the project leader to "ignore the technical route" and never take performance as the first pursuit, because the market could not accommodate too many high-performance consoles. "Video games exist only for one purpose: fun. Bring fun to everyone! " Satoru Iwata said.
In November, 2004, Nintendo DS handheld went on the market, which was the experiment of Satoru Iwata’s "Game Population Expansion" strategy. At first glance, DS is simply inexplicable: it has nothing in common with the previous generation GBA handheld, and actually has two screens, one of which is a touch screen and a microphone interface. How can developers balance two screens? What are touch screens and microphones for? From the perspective of resolution and image quality, the progress of DS relative to GBA is not too great. Isn’t this upgrade meaningless?
Nintendo’s answer is: If you don’t know what DS can do, I’ll tell you. It launched the pet game nintendogs, the puzzle game Brain Exercise, and the medical game … … They greatly broaden the gameplay and scenes of the game. At the same time, Nintendo also launched DS versions of "traditional" games such as Galaxy Warrior Prime, Animal Forest and Mario Kart DS: when the game scene is displayed on the main screen, the touch screen can display maps, player information and scene information, and the two screens can even provide two different ways of playing. Satoru Iwata said: "DS should not only meet the needs of hardcore players for challenges, but also meet the needs of leisure players for fun." It did it!
At the same time, another console destined to change the map of the game industry is coming out: Nintendo Wii. Satoru Iwata’s request is: "Any housewife must fall in love with it!" The development code of Wii is "Revolution", and its revolution is mainly embodied in the controller: it is a stick like a TV remote control, which can be operated with one hand and has somatosensory function. In the game, players can use controllers as swords, guns, bats, fishing rods and steering wheels … … Play games through various body movements. This controller also has the function of light gun, which can directly point, position and manipulate the screen.
After seeing the function of Wii for the first time, both mainstream and non-mainstream players were detonated. Countless children stood in front of the TV and waved "swords" to kill the dragon in the game; Countless middle-aged men sit on the sofa, staring at the screen and pretending to be fishing; Countless housewives use controllers to beat the time and follow the music rhythm in the game. Playing Wii can even replace physical exercise! This is a host for family fun, and the whole family is scrambling for the controller, competing or cooperating with each other. Isn’t the meaning of the existence of games to bring fun to people of all ages?
Nintendo Wii is the third home game console listed in the seventh generation. In November 2005, Microsoft Xbox 360 took the lead in listing; In November, 2006, Sony PS3 came on the market belatedly, only a few days earlier than Wii. Moreover, the PS3 has a horrible pricing: the low-end model is $499 and the high-end model is $599; Competitor Xbox only sells for $ 299~399, and Wii only sells for $249! Moreover, the performance of PS3 has no obvious advantage over Xbox 360. Is Sony out of his mind?
Sony is playing a big game of chess. After winning two generations of console wars, IT wants to use its position in the game console market to realize another dream: to enter the chip industry and establish a bottom-up "IT ecosystem". Sony already has technical genes, and the PS2 uses Sony’s deeply customized CPU and GPU, but it has not yet mastered the underlying technology. From 1980s to 1990s, the chip industry was in full bloom, and there were many architectures and technical routes in the market. Game console manufacturers can make the most cost-effective and suitable choice among these solutions. However, in the 2000s, Intel-led x86 architecture processors almost unified the civilian market, and the Japanese semiconductor industry was marginalized, leaving few choices for host manufacturers.
Sony doesn’t want to be just a "game platform vendor", it wants to build an ecosystem with core technologies. At that time, the only thing that could compete with x86 in the civilian chip market was IBM’s Power PC architecture, which was used in Apple computers at that time. As early as 2000, Sony, Toshiba and IBM reached a technical alliance, and in 2001, they began to jointly develop the next generation chip based on Power PC architecture — — Cell。 IBM assured Sony that Cell would have powerful graphics processing capabilities. Sony plans to use Cell for the next generation of game consoles, completely defeating Microsoft and Nintendo, and then take advantage of the advantages accumulated in the console market to further push Cell into mainstream PC, consumer electronics and other markets. By then, Sony will become an IT giant alongside Microsoft and Intel. What a dream in the Spring and Autumn Period!
The reality is cruel — — In the long development process, Cell has spent a total of $4 billion, but it has never met expectations. Cell’s CPU consists of one main unit and eight auxiliary units. This overly complicated structure leads to soaring cost and continuous delay in construction period. What’s more, the performance of GPU is far worse than the GPU being developed by NVIDIA in the same period! Sony is in a dilemma: if we continue to increase investment, the cost of Cell will soar further, completely losing its cost performance; If you don’t invest, it is impossible to meet the requirements of the next generation host chip. Desperate Sony had to turn to NVIDIA and finally got a GPU that was competent, which once again led to rising costs and delays in construction … …
At the same time, Microsoft quietly took advantage of Sony. In order to share the high R&D cost, IBM decided to sell part of Cell’s technology to Microsoft. Xbox engineers even developed it upstairs from the PS3 team, but Sony knew nothing about it. Finally, Xbox adopts customized IBM Power PC CPU, but avoids the complex Cell architecture, thus achieving a high cost performance. In terms of GPU, Microsoft considered NVIDIA and finally chose ATI. In 2005, when Sony boasted about the performance of the PS3 as a supercomputer at E3, Microsoft’s Xbox was basically ready. This time, Microsoft will have the first-Mover advantage for a whole year!
From November to December 2005, Xbox 360 landed in 36 countries around the world; By the end of the year, the shipment has reached 1.5 million units. Some players are still waiting for the PS3, but seeing the high price of the PS3, they have given up. By the end of 2006, Xbox 360 had sold nearly 10 million units, while the Wii, which just went on the market, had sold 3 million units. Wii occupied the leisure and family fun player market, while Xbox 360 occupied the hardcore player market. What market can be left for PS3? What’s more, because the hardware cost is too high, although it is sold at a high price of $ 499~599, each PS3 will still lose $ 241~360! Sony was hopeless, and the PS3 was doomed to failure, until Microsoft ruined itself in a strange way — — The infamous "three reds of death".
In order to catch up with the listing on Thanksgiving Day in 2015, Microsoft only reserved a short production time for the first batch of Xbox 360, and the quality control was weak. The previous generation of Xbox was ridiculed as "stupid and rough". This time, Microsoft decided to make the product small and beautiful, but did not pay attention to the heat dissipation problem. A large number of users found that the Xbox 360 power button will light up three red lights, which means a permanent crash. Microsoft claims that only 3%~5% Xbox 360 users face "three reds" failure; However, the third party estimates that the failure rate of some models may be as high as 68%. Although Microsoft finally compensated the "Three Red" users, it was too late.
Sony PS3 is not only expensive, but also the software development is extremely difficult, and almost no developer can fully understand it. However, it still has a huge first-party and third-party content library, maintaining a minimum appeal. In order to adapt to the Internet age, PS3 launched online services, social networks and encouraged online games. When Xbox 360 was trapped in "Three Red Death", players finally remembered the benefits of PS3. Sony also slashed its price, although it meant higher losses. By the end of 2007, the sales of PS3 had improved significantly. In 2009, it achieved profitability.
Nintendo Wii ranked first in sales in North America and Japan and second in Europe. Sony PS3 was defeated in North America, performed well in Japan and won a great victory in Europe. The sales volume of Microsoft Xbox360 in North America is second only to that of Wii, and its performance in Europe is mediocre, and it is defeated in Japan. At this moment, due to economic depression and aging population, Japan is no longer an important game console market. The technology, creativity, products and market centers of the game industry have all been transferred to North America and Europe.
The winner of the seventh generation console war is undoubtedly Nintendo Wii, which has achieved a total sales volume of 102 million. However, somatosensory games come and go quickly, and leisure players quickly reach the aesthetic fatigue period, leading to a rapid decline in sales in the later period. Sony PS3 came from behind and sold 87.4 million units, thanks to Microsoft’s self-defeating martial arts and the sharp price reduction at no expense. Microsoft Xbox 360 had a fantastic start, but "Three Red Death" caused serious damage and only sold 84 million units. The sales of the three major consoles in this generation are very close, and the hot sale of Wii has not affected the two competitors. This shows that Nintendo has indeed attracted many "non-players" and broadened the boundaries of the game.
In the handheld market, Nintendo DS has a total sales volume of 154 million, and it has no suspense to take the lead. However, the old rival Sony’s PSP has also sold 81 million, and the handheld is no longer the preserve of Nintendo. DS and PSP form a wonderful complementary relationship: the former has strong gameplay, while the latter has stronger performance; The former is a completely independent device, and the latter forms a synergy with the PS home host. The competition of this generation is no longer a "zero-sum game", but a rare emergence of multiple winners.
The eighth generation: Microsoft is on the verge of going out, Nintendo will do another trick, and Sony will sit firmly on Diaoyutai.
In 2007, Apple released its first iPhone. According to Jobs, this is "a large-screen iPod with touch function", "a revolutionary mobile phone" and "an epoch-making Internet communication tool". What Jobs didn’t expect was that the iPhone (and its competitors) would become the most successful game platform in human history. In the second year, the App Store was launched, and countless third-party applications flooded into the smartphone market. Of course, the game will not be absent. From 2009 to 2010, the first batch of best-selling mobile games such as Angry Birds, Fruit Ninja and Graffiti Jump appeared.
Nintendo, which swept the global market in the seventh-generation game console war, was horrified to hear the death knell — — IPhone has multi-touch screen, gyroscope, camera and high-speed Internet connection. Isn’t that what casual players need? Nintendo’s most admired somatosensory, casual gameplay and fragmented time games can be provided by smartphones; It’s just a little weak in family fun. With the improvement of hardware performance, smart phones can also provide hard-core games sooner or later. Considering the portability of smart phones, the handheld market may quickly go extinct, and how many people will buy a host?
Nintendo is in trouble: it wants to conquer "non-players" and "light players", but now these people are attracted by the iPhone. Sales of Wii dropped rapidly. There has never been a mainframe, which was still in full swing in the third year of release and reached a desperate situation in the fifth year. Nintendo can only start the research and development of the next-generation mainframe in advance. At E3 2011, the Wii U mainframe was unveiled: it continued the design idea of Wii, did not compete for hardware performance, and was based on light players; However, it added support for 1080P high-definition image quality (as competitors did in the previous generation) and introduced a controller with LCD touch screen. Satoru Iwata claims that this is to introduce "asymmetric gameplay", and the controller can also act as an independent handheld. That doesn’t sound reliable
After the release of Wii U, Nintendo’s share price fell to its lowest point since 2006. Investors accurately predicted that this console could not compete with the iPhone among light players, and could not compete with Sony and Microsoft’s next-generation consoles among heavy players. After its listing in November 2012, the Wii U was immediately snubbed by the market, and Nintendo’s first-party content could not support it. Nintendo’s next-generation handheld 3DS performs a little better, and its naked-eye 3D function is quite gimmicky. However, its sales volume is far lower than that of the previous generation DS. Satoru Iwata admitted that he didn’t realize that smart phones have changed people’s living habits.
Will Sony and Microsoft have a better life when Nintendo Empire collapses again? In the previous generation, they all suffered heavy losses — — Sony has a high repair rate because of the high cost of the PS3, and Microsoft has a high because of "Three Red Death". In the eighth generation, Sony no longer expects to take the game console as a springboard to win the semiconductor core technology; Microsoft is also aware that the status of game consoles in the home entertainment market is declining; They all decided to seek stability. The game console is no longer a "tool to rule the living room" and there is no "high-tech content". The most important thing now is cost performance.
Sony and Microsoft found AMD by coincidence, and chose its x86 architecture low-power Jaguar accelerated processor (integrating CPU and GPU). Jaguar’s original usage scenario was a low-end laptop. It’s ridiculous: in the seventh generation, both Sony and Microsoft tried to transform supercomputer chips into game consoles; In the eighth generation, they only dare to use cheap notebook chips. In November 2013, Sony PS4 and Microsoft Xbox One went public at the same time. To put it bluntly, they are just medium-level customized game PCs, and the only advantage is that they are cheap.
PS4 and Xbox One have the same technical route, similar performance and similar time to market, so they should be inextricably linked in theory. However, Microsoft’s series of suicide actions are an eye-opener: First, in order to learn the lesson of Xbox 360 "Three Red Death", Xbox One has done a lot (to dissipate heat) and has no sense of design; Secondly, Xbox One forcibly binds the $100 somatosensory controller Kinect, and most players have long lost interest in somatosensory games; Finally, Microsoft actually forced players to connect to the Internet. If they don’t connect to the Internet for 48 hours, they will block the machine, which is euphemistically called "cracking down on piracy". The player was completely enraged, and PS4 won without bloodshed.
Although there is nothing outstanding about PS4, it has made the least mistakes, sitting and watching its opponents blow themselves up one by one. In 2016, Microsoft simply gave up treatment and announced the launch of the Xbox Play Anywhere program: many exclusive games on the Xbox series consoles, including the Halo series, were transplanted to the Windows PC platform. This time, the Xbox One console has no value, and Microsoft’s strategic focus has shifted from home entertainment to cloud computing and artificial intelligence. Microsoft no longer even announces the sales of Xbox One, and its internal game studios have been sold or independent.
By 2016, the performance of this generation of game consoles has obviously lagged behind mainstream PCs, let alone compared with high-end PCs. When PC players can run 2K and 4K games at the frame rate of 60~120, the host players can only be satisfied with the frame rate of 1080P and 30. The reason is simple: the hardware performance of PS4 and Xbox One is weak and outdated; Because the general chip is used, there is no room for deep optimization. In desperation, both Sony and Microsoft have launched "half-generation upgrade" consoles, and their hardware configurations are more powerful, but there is no breakthrough. This is the embodiment of the embarrassing situation of host manufacturers — — They should not only control the cost, but also dare not develop their own technical routes, and they should not lag behind the times too much. For players and developers, "half-generation upgrade" is not very attractive.
When Sony and Microsoft were still busy squeezing the oil and water out of the mainframe market, Nintendo launched the epoch-making Switch, which truly achieved the "integration of mainframe and handheld"; We will describe the story of Switch in detail in the following chapters. Mobile games have flourished, occupying half of the global game market, and occupying an absolute advantage in East Asia and Southeast Asia. The mode of in-house purchase and payment of props in mobile games has a serious impact on the buyout and payment mode of host games. Traditional console game manufacturers have tried mobile games one after another, and even Nintendo has started mobile games, and it has made a lot of profits!
The eighth generation mainframe war is not over yet. By the end of 2018, Sony PS4 had achieved a total sales volume of 96.5 million, ranking first; Microsoft Xbox One has not released data, but it is generally believed that its sales volume is only half that of PS4. Nintendo Wii U only sold 13.65 million units, while Switch sold 32.27 million units. The market scale of this generation mainframe is much lower than that of the seventh generation, even lower than that of the sixth generation; Only Sony’s sales increased slightly. In terms of handhelds, Nintendo 3DS sold 75.08 million handhelds, which was lower than that of previous generations of handhelds. Sony PSV only sold 6 million units, and the entire product line was cut. If the home console market is in jeopardy, then the handheld market is on the verge of extinction.
In the era of rampant mobile games, does the console war still make sense?
In 2018, mobile games (including mobile phones and tablets) accounted for 47% of the global game market, console games only accounted for 28%, and PC games only accounted for 25%. At the beginning of the 21st century, with the continuous improvement of PC performance, people once wondered: Will PC replace the game console in the future? Now, the answer is clear: game consoles are indeed more and more similar to PCs, but both are being replaced by smartphones. The sum of the profits of all console game developers in the world cannot be compared with Tencent.
In the North American market, console games are still the mainstream. Because Americans have a strong living room culture and more leisure time, and their favorite "Gun Qiu Che" game is more suitable for playing on the mainframe. However, since 2018, the scale of the North American game market has lagged behind that of China, and the growth rate is not fast. The share of mobile games in North America is steadily increasing: from casual candy crush saga to shooting Wild Action and Survival of the Jedi, it is consuming players’ attention.
China missed almost the whole host war: from the first generation to the fourth generation, China’s economy was not developed enough and its consumption capacity was insufficient. In June 2000, seven ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of Culture, issued the famous "game machine ban", which prevented the fifth to seventh generation consoles from entering the China market. The "game machine ban" was not lifted until 2014, and Sony PS4 and Microsoft Xbox One were legally sold in China. However, users in China have developed the habit of playing games on PC and mobile phones, and they can’t adapt to the business model of buyout console games. China can’t bring enough increment to the host.
In any case, China has quietly become the new "base camp" of the game industry, and Tencent and Netease have also entered the ranks of the world’s largest game R&D and publishers. Nintendo, once known for its conservatism and arrogance, had to seek support from the Internet giants in China. When the overseas version of the glory of the king landed on the Switch host, countless players were stunned, and some even wrote to ask Nintendo to cancel this decision; What they don’t know is that the initiative in decision-making has already shifted. Nintendo has put its top-quality IP such as Pokémon, Flame Emblem and Super Mario on the mobile phone; If we can recover the pressure of declining performance, what if we sell these IPS to Tencent? All empires in the mainframe market have collapsed, and the glory of the old days can’t bring today’s success, let alone maintain the stock price.
Looking to the future: the ninth generation, cloud games, the integration of host and mobile?
"Tencent has the largest game and Internet instant messaging market in China. Although we have cooperated with fugue company to bring NDS and 3DS to China, we have not achieved the expected success. Therefore, we have now decided to cooperate with Tencent, hoping to develop China’s business smoothly through Tencent. "
— — Shuntaro Tanikawa, president of Nintendo, April 28, 2019
Ninth Generation: Is the war over? Someone is happy to keep playing!
Is it necessary to fight the mainframe war? Mobile games occupy half of the world, the technical routes of host manufacturers are highly similar, and the performance of mainstream PCs is already higher than that of hosts. In the future, will high-end players move to PC and low-end players move to mobile? In April 2019, Sony made a tough answer: the ninth-generation PS5 host is ready! It will still be based on AMD’s x86 architecture chip, with the highest resolution of 8K, and support the hot ray tracing technology. Soon, Microsoft also confirmed that the Xbox console will have the next generation.
For the game content side, the host platform has irreplaceable significance. First of all, it is difficult to crack and there is no piracy, thus safeguarding the interests of the content side to the maximum extent. Secondly, it adopts the buyout system, and the initial payment is very large, which improves the cash flow of developers and publishers. Thirdly, its hardware is standardized, which is conducive to optimization, unlike countless hardware collocations on PC platform. Finally, many consoles are sold at a loss in the early stage of sale, which is equivalent to the host manufacturer subsidizing players and establishing a huge player group — — The ultimate beneficiary is still the content side.
Host manufacturers and content providers know that the portability, leisure and social attributes of the host are definitely not comparable to mobile phones; It is also difficult for console games to fully turn to the in-house payment mode of mobile games. To attract players, we must increase investment in the technical quality of the game. Ray tracing technology is a life-saving straw: it can produce highly realistic light and shadow effects, give the picture a higher sense of reality and make the game completely "cinematic". Sony PS5 has announced its support for ray tracing technology, but the technical details are still in doubt. In the next generation, only breakthrough technological progress can give the mainframe vitality.
Since the seventh generation, the research and development of console games has become a capital-intensive and manpower-intensive "arms race". The development cost of GTA5 reached US$ 137 million, while fistful of dollars 2 used 1,185 developers, with a total cost of nearly US$ 400 million! The so-called "3A masterpieces" have higher and higher requirements for art, special effects and animation, and the development cycle is getting longer and longer. Is this business model really sustainable? However, what choice does the content side have? Only a shocking picture and a cinematic narrative mode can attract players from their mobile phones. This is the sorrow of history.
The three major host manufacturers are unwilling to end the host war. Nintendo’s reason is that it only has a game business, and it is used to developing games for its own hardware. Without a host, there is no lifeline. The reason for Sony and Microsoft is that the mainframe has brought them a large number of active users, and it is difficult for these users to transfer to other platforms. By the end of 2018, Sony had 90 million connected users, Microsoft had 57 million, and even Nintendo, which did not emphasize the networking function, had 9 million. Host users will not only buy games, but also buy online members, streaming media and even offline services. Especially for Sony, "games and network services" is one of the biggest and most profitable businesses, and we can’t give it up easily.
At the performance briefing for fiscal year 2018-2019, Sony said: PS5 will not be released before April 2020. There is no accurate news about Microsoft’s next-generation mainframe so far. Therefore, we will stay in the eighth generation for about 12 months. If the next-generation console has strong performance and the price can be limited within a reasonable range (for example, $399), it may indeed bring a wave of increment to the global game market and be transmitted to the PC and mobile game markets. However, if the new generation PS and Xbox repeat the mistakes of the early seventh generation, the console war may be completely over.
Cloud game: If you want to change the life of the game console, first ask how many "martyrs" have died.
Google chose to announce the Stadia cloud game service at the E3 exhibition in 2019, which is the right time window: the eighth generation of the console is coming to an end, and the ninth generation has not yet arrived. Tens of millions of hardcore players are faced with the entanglement of "whether to buy a console next year". Google’s conditions are very attractive: as long as you buy cloud services, you don’t have to pay for the next generation host, or even the game itself. Everything is included in the low monthly fee, and you can interrupt the payment at will.
The problem is that Google Stadia is not the first cloud game service. As early as 2015, the first batch of commercial cloud game services have been launched, and they also adopt a monthly payment model. Sony, Microsoft, NVIDIA, EA… … These hardware or software giants have either already run cloud games or are testing and developing them. After more than four years of development, cloud games have not become the mainstream in any country, and many service providers have closed down, so where is Google’s confidence?
In fact, host manufacturers don’t care about using cloud games to "change their lives". At present, the most successful cloud game service — — Playstation Now is operated by Sony. Microsoft has always wanted to get through the Xbox platform and Windows PC platform through cloud games. PS Now supports two platforms, PS4 and PC, and has more than 700 games, including 3A console masterpieces such as fistful of dollars 2. Moreover, PS Now not only supports pure cloud games, but also supports players to download games to play locally. Why hasn’t such high-quality service become the mainstream of the market?
There are at least two reasons. In terms of business model, cloud games have little advantage: they need to pay $ 20~40 a month, which is also the price after many high-quality games are discounted, and players don’t take too much advantage. The content library of mainstream cloud games generally includes hundreds of games, which cannot cover a large number of independent, niche and vertical categories. In theory, cloud games can completely save the hardware cost of players, but it can’t be done in reality. For the content side, cloud games will lead to a serious slowdown in cash flow recovery, especially for large manufacturers with high costs.
Technically, even the best cloud game service providers cannot solve the delay problem. During E3, the total delay of Google Stadia was 166ms, which was much higher than PC and Xbox One X；; Considering that the network environment at that time was controlled by Google, in reality, the gap will definitely be greater. According to the research of Eurogamer magazine, the ideal game delay should be less than 133ms, and fast-paced action, shooting and other games should be less than 67 ms. Although the popularity of 5G can solve the "last mile" problem, it can only partially shorten the delay time. In a word, it is unrealistic to expect cloud games to produce subversive results in the ninth generation.
Switch is a small problem, and the integration of host and mobile games is a big problem.
Nintendo Switch, which went public in March 2017, is not so much a "combination of host and handheld" as a "hybrid of host and mobile device". Similar in size to tablet computer, multi-touch screen, detachable handle, strong networking function, and emphasis on socialization and collaboration … … All of them are reminiscent of mobile games. If the Switch is equipped with Android, compatible with third-party applications and equipped with 4G data function, it is almost a "game-oriented tablet".
In terms of hardware configuration, the Switch is lacking: with the ARM mobile processor, the CPU clock frequency is only 1.02GHz, the floating-point computing power is only 60% of that of the PS4, the highest resolution is only 1080P, and the handheld mode is only 720P, even worse than mainstream smartphones. Nintendo is obviously carrying out the idea of the late President Satoru Iwata: not focusing on technical indicators as the core competitiveness, but focusing on gameplay and differentiated competition. Surprisingly, after the launch of Switch, it generated great heat. It seems that Nintendo has adapted to the era of mobile Internet and will bring another revolution?
Facts have proved that people are still too optimistic — — In 2018, the sales of Switch slowed down significantly; In the first two years of sale, it only sold a total of 32.74 million units, which was not bad, but it was far from subversive. The problem faced by Switch is a bit like the Wii of that year: players are novel at first, but aesthetic fatigue comes quickly. Nintendo still relies on powerful first-party content to support the situation: Super Mario Odyssey, Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wilderness, Mario Kart 8》… … It constitutes the reason why most players buy Switch. Third-party developers are still waiting to see: the performance of Switch is too weak, the operation is special, and the installed capacity is not large. There are not many developers who are really willing to spend time on it.
After all, the biggest advantage of the host platform over the smart phone is always the content. Xian Yi’s works such as Super Mario, movie games such as Mysterious Sea, hardcore action games such as Monster Hunter, and multiplayer online shooting games such as Destiny & HELIP; … It is difficult for smart phone platforms to reach in the short term, and it is also the biggest chip of the host ecosystem. Some of these high-quality IP will be transplanted to the mobile phone platform, and the other part will attract new players to the host platform. Why does Tencent cooperate with Nintendo? Isn’t it for its explosive classic IP?
Nintendo Switch pointed out a way for the game industry, and more people will step up their efforts to try the integration of "host+mobile games". The idea of adding a gamepad to a mobile phone has long appeared, and there are a large number of mobile handles on the market that imitate the Switch key position. In recent years, it is quite popular to optimize the hardware and design "game mobile phone" for mobile games. Traditional e-sports peripheral manufacturers such as Razer and Logitech are trying to penetrate the mobile terminal. So far, none of these ideas has become the mainstream: the biggest advantage of mobile phones is that they are light and flexible, and any "aggravation" on the hardware level is damaging the core competitiveness.
The most qualified host platform and mobile platform are actually Apple: if there is an "Apple Switch" host with iOS system, cellular mobile network, handle and screen projection function, it is likely to succeed. Google and Microsoft have similar strengths. Even Nintendo itself can go further in the attempt of the next generation console. This kind of attempt is too revolutionary and involves too many conflicts of interest, so no one has dared to do it.
However, by 2019, the situation has changed: Apple’s latest generation of mobile phone sales are bleak, and its advantages over the Android platform almost no longer exist; Google has aggressively entered the game industry through cloud games; Microsoft may return to the mobile device market with Surface. For Apple, the content market is the most feasible next growth point, and games are the content with the strongest liquidity. Now that Apple has a complete hardware combination of smart phones, tablets, desktop computers, set-top boxes and smart speakers, plus a game console, it seems that it is not out of reach?
The ninth generation game console, which will be listed in 2020, may inject new creativity and vitality into the global game market, or it may be the last generation game console. In any case, the game industry will undergo a reshuffle in the next two years, and the game products will be "polarized": hard-core products will become more and more cinematic and high-end, and peripheral products will become more and more casual and fragmented. Game manufacturers will also experience "polarization": the head manufacturers are strong and strong, and vertical and niche manufacturers emerge one after another.
Tencent Holdings: Tencent has established a trinity game ecosystem of "host, PC and mobile phone" after officially announcing its cooperation with Nintendo and bringing the Switch console into China. If Tencent’s traffic and operation are combined with Nintendo’s creativity and content, it will undoubtedly be the best combination of the game industry. Different from the stereotype of the market, Tencent has been emphasizing content quality in recent years, and successfully incorporated a number of high-quality products through overseas mergers and acquisitions and supporting independent developers. After the game console ban was lifted, the domestic console market has been tepid. Maybe Tencent will be the game breaker?
Netease: There is no doubt that the large-scale and 3A-oriented game products are one of Netease’s efforts in recent years. In 2018, Netease took a stake in Bungie, a console game manufacturer, and there may be more and more similar mergers and acquisitions or investments in the future. We believe that after the decline in market share in 2018, Netease will concentrate its R&D investment on some large projects and try to introduce high-quality IP from the host.
Perfect World: Among A-share game companies, only Perfect World has a strong console game development team and enjoys a good reputation in overseas markets. The listing of the ninth generation mainframe will directly benefit its mainframe business and bring spillover effects to other businesses. Since 2018, Perfect World has established a good cooperative relationship with Tencent, which may lead to the first share after Switch was introduced to China.
Razer: Razer has certain advantages in the field of PC e-sports equipment, but it has not made a breakthrough in mobile e-sports. If the trend of "combination of host and mobile game" led by Switch continues, and even the "mobile host platform" led by Apple and Google appears, Razer will undoubtedly be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Of course, the competitive landscape of the e-sports equipment market may also change dramatically.
Live broadcast of Tiger Tooth: Live broadcast of games is a content business, and only high-quality games can have competitions and player bases. In China, the proportion of console games in live content is very low; However, the powerful gameplay and cool audio-visual effects of console games have certain appeal to mainstream audiences. If the host’s influence in China’s game market rises, it will undoubtedly bring fresh blood to the game live broadcast platforms such as Huya.
risk factor
The state’s supervision of the game industry may be further tightened. Even if the game version number is restored, the content review may be strict. Host games face higher regulatory risks.
The aesthetic fatigue tendency of gamers is very obvious, and the commercial value of any game products released in the future may be affected.
Host platforms and game products are facing the risk of life cycle exhaustion.
Many listed game companies may still have high valuations.