① gentle slope period (1980– 2001). Energy consumption and carbon emissions grew slowly, with an average annual increase of 45 million tons of standard coal in energy consumption and 98 million tons of carbon emissions.
② steep slope period (2002– 2013). Energy consumption and carbon emissions are rising rapidly. Energy consumption increased by 218 million tons of standard coal and carbon emissions increased by 477 million tons annually. Ben+Wen+Nei. Rong. Lai. From: China’s carbon emissions * emissions * exchanges * E-Net T A NP AI Fan g.com
③ Slow-down period (2014– 2020). Energy consumption and carbon emissions have entered a slowing period, with an average annual increase of 116 million tons of standard coal in energy consumption and 94 million tons of carbon emissions.
The next 10 years will be the key stage of China’s basic modernization, and the multiple developments such as industrialization, urbanization and informatization will bring rigid pressure on the growth of carbon emissions. As shown in Figure 2, based on the accounting results of industries/fields, with active measures, the direct carbon emissions of energy activities and industrial processes in China are expected to reach the peak in the middle and late period of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, which is about 500-700 million tons more than that in 2020. Due to the unsynchronized peak of industries, the carbon emissions will remain at the peak plateau for 3-4 years.
In order to ensure that China will achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, it is necessary to promote different industries/fields to reach the peak step by step. Among them, the industrial sector as a whole reached its peak during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, and the carbon emissions decreased steadily after the peak, while the power, transportation and construction sectors reached their peak during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. It should be pointed out that the rigid demand for energy in industries/fields such as electric power, petrochemical and transportation will remain high for some time to come, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" will be a crucial period of "controlling increment and promoting transformation". The peak-reaching process of these industries/fields determines the situation of peak carbon dioxide emissions in China before 2030.
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